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Will Tesla survive?
Yes, Tesla and Elon Musk must continue to defy logic, and short term economics because a trillion dollar bounty awaits in only a few years.
Ark Invest predicts that autonomous vehicle platforms and electric vehicles will be a multi-trillion dollar market in only a few years.
- Autonomous Vehicle Market: $600 billion – $3 trillion by 2021
- Electric Vehicle Market: 17 million vehicles sold in 2022
The research firm, which includes Tesla in many of its managed ETFs, believes that Musk’s company (along with Alphabet and Baidu) are the serious contenders for the EV and AV market.
Also, in much needed good news Ark reported in its weekly email newsletter that Tesla’s Gigafactory is three years ahead of schedule in its production capacity:
Despite Elon Musk’s recent SEC troubles, settled yesterday, Tesla is ahead of its strategic plan according to some important metrics. This week Panasonic announced that it is planning to add three production lines to the Gigafactory, increasing its capacity to 35 GWh by the end of this year. When it first announced the Gigafactory with Panasonic in 2013, Tesla was aiming for 35 GWh of battery cell production by 2020, supporting production of 500,000 vehicles a year.
Today, the Gigafactory is 30% of the footprint Tesla envisioned originally, giving it more degrees of freedom to supply autos, homes and utilities during the next few years. At 35 GWh, its capacity will be two years ahead of schedule by the end of this year, supporting Musk’s claims the Gigafactory should be able to produce 150 GWh per year once it is complete. Cars could account for half of the capacity, and energy storage units for utilities and homes the balance.
Earlier this year, batteries were the bottleneck for Model 3 production. Now, Panasonic is on track to put the Gigafactory two years ahead of schedule, accommodating the pace of innovation.
This bodes well not only for the production of Tesla vehicles, but also for the company’s Powerwalls for home energy storage, another potentially massive market in which Tesla could become a player.