Which Cryptos Will Survive?

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If I had to guess which cryptocurrencies will live through the current train wreck of cryptocurrency… And survive the long-term, I would guess it’s very few of them.

I think cryptocurrencies make sense conceptually because “solid state” and software is eating the world, as Marc Andreessen once said.

Recently some MIT researchers even developed a solid state plane that flew without any moving parts… It flew about 100 yards just by electrifying the air in Star Trek “ion drive” fashion

The cryptos that may survive the long-term will be ones that:

1) People know

2) Have utility

3) Have the best business model and teams

There are so few of these as to probably count them on one hand.

1) Bitcoin

2) Basic Attention Token

3) Stellar Lumens

4) Ripple

5) Cardano

Of these, everyone knows Bitcoin. Bitcoin is seen as “digital gold” by many and potentially an asset that can be held (if you have a strong stomach, obviously). The high level of awareness of Bitcoin could mean that it has lasting value of some sort. Technology can also be developed around Bitcoin to make it more useful in some ways that we haven’t even thought of yet.

I think Bitcoin’s biggest asset is its brand awareness. Even though very few people actually own Bitcoin, most people have heard of it.

Not so with Basic Attention Token… Probably hardly no one has heard of it. However, Basic Attention Token to me seems the most like a real business. It has an excellent team and it has utility in the Brave browser. I use the Brave browser and it works well. I like the fact that Tor is built right in.

The last three (Stellar Lumens, Ripple and Cardano) are all fighting to address some sort of payment application using cryptocurrency.

I am not sure what applications will be used by these companies that will go mainstream enough to make them survive… But they are run by strong technical and business teams. Probably like Bitcoin, we can’t imagine what applications these cryptocurrencies might be used for down the road.

I think whatever happens with them, they should support the early adopters as much as they can. If you look at how most technologies evolve, cryptocurrencies are at the beginning of the early adopter phase and entering the “trough of sorrow” where there is always a huge shakeout. The trough of sorrow is usually used to describe a startup’s journey, but it can also be the case for a new technology.

I think it would be a good thing if there was a huge shakeout of most of the ERC-20 token projects, also known as “shit coins”, that essentially do nothing.

Eventually there will probably only be a few, maybe a handful, that survive and actually mean anything.

I also think that if traction actually occurs in any mainstream way, it will be easy for a company like Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google or Microsoft to easily develop a cryptocurrency on their own. Any of these companies could gain massive adoption just by forcing their users to use the cryptos that they produce to transact for some benefit on their platforms.