How to Make Good, Uncorrelated Bets

I’m reading Ray Dalio’s book “Principles” right now. The first time I started hearing his name over and over was when he was mentioned by Tony Robbins in his book “Money: Master The Game”. Dalio recommends making 20 good, uncorrelated bets as the “Holy Grail” of investing. The key words there are “good” and “uncorrelated”. What Are Good, Uncorrelated Bets? The meaning of “Good” is obvious. Don’t make dumb investments. The meaning of “Uncorrelated” refers to a statistical relationship between assets as measured on a scale. The degree to which…

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LendingClub Needs a Name Change…

LendingClub needs a name change

LendingClub (LC) can’t catch a break. The company just announced that it’s being sued by the FTC. The lawsuit alleges that the peer to peer lender misled users about hidden fees. Sigh. If LendingClub was some new startup in Silicon Valley providing a marketplace for online, peer to peer loans to people, you’d think the stock would be through the roof. But for all intents and purposes, LC lives in “Bizarro” online business stock performance world… If you take the long term view, a company like LendingClub should be all…

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Apple Lacks Innovation? Get Your Head Examined…

Apple lacks innovation? Get your head examined

Every (insert time period here) there seems to be another article written by some blogger or journalist somewhere insisting that Apple lacks innovation. Writers like to claim that Apple has “killed innovation” or ponder if Apple has lost its “innovation mojo“. For instance, here is a quote from a “mojo” article from 2017 (emphasis and bolding mine): Apple has entered one new product category under Cook. It released the Apple Watch. But it was late to the wearables game and Apple has yet to release figures on sales of the Watch.…

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SpaceX: A Communications Company with Rockets

SpaceX communications company with rockets

I was reminded of the genius of Elon Musk today by a tweet from @angusdav. Elon Musk’s entrepreneurial accomplishments are impressive enough on their own. As the imperator of Hyperloop, Tesla, The Boring Company, Space X, Neuralink, not to mention PayPal… But colonizing Mars may be his most audacious goal. The decisive launch of the Falcon Heavy provided the nation with a dose of inspiration and some much needed distraction from excrescent politics. And yet it was an extemporary salute to the real business opportunity in SpaceX, which is: Satellites… A lot of…

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Will Coins and ICOs Replace Stocks and IPOs?

Mr. T ICO pain prediction

Could the simplicity of cryptocurrencies and ICOs eventually replace stocks and IPOs? Who knows what will happen in the long term. In the short term, though, I’ll wager that there will be lots of… to paraphrase the eminently quotable Clubber Lang… “Pain.” Scammers Are Ruining the ICO Party Just today TechCrunch wrote about a Lithuanian scammer who launched a token called “Prodeum”. The concept behind the token was to track every piece of “food” on the blockchain. Sounds totally investable so far. The guy followed the ICO hype playbook… 1)…

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There Go The Lawyers

For the first time ever, a machine has done better than the average person in reading comprehension. Alibaba’s machine learning and artificial intelligence system outscored a human on the Stanford SQuAD reading comprehension test… Microsoft’s system did so as well, although it was reported later than Alibaba’s score. There goes the legal profession. Pretty soon, in evolutionary terms anyway, Alexa or Cortana (or maybe even crappy Siri) will be able to answer your basic legal questions for you, for a fee of course. I’m sure lawyers and legal scholars will…

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What is Cardano and How Do I Trade It?

What is Cardano?

*Updated 1/19/2018 What is Cardano? The Cardano Project (aka “Cardano”) is a 3rd generation blockchain platform for smart contracts and a cryptocurrency called “ADA“. Cardano has capabilities similar to Ethereum, in that it is a decentralized, open source, blockchain platform for smart contracts for distributed application development, and also a cryptocurrency (aka a coin). That’s pretty much where the similarities stop… Why is Cardano Considered a 3rd Generation Blockchain? The blockchain community was built on the concept of eliminating trusted third parties through distributed applications (dApps). And, in the nascent blockchain…

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Amazon Coin, Apple Cash, Stripe Coin, Facebook Coin, etc.

Ripple growth

With the cryptocurrency frenzy, it’s been proven that it is simply possible to print money almost out of thin air. Unlike many cryptocurrencies which seem to be complete scams, Ripple, for instance, is a real company… Ripple’s founders, management, Board and investors are experienced Silicon Valley executives and blue chip Sand Hill Road and Silicon Alley Venture Capitalists. But are they worth $11.6 billion? That’s the imputed value of the 20% of Ripple cryptocurrency (XRP) that the company will hold (out of a total of 100,000,000,000 XRP today worth $58,389,188,679…

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With DIS Fox Acquisition Complete… Will Apple Buy Disney?

What did Disney buy from Fox?

What Did Disney Buy From Fox? Back in August, when Disney (NYSE: DIS) announced that it would cut ties with Netflix and launch its own streaming business to compete in digital content, etc… Wall Street crushed it. I pondered… Why? After all, it was exactly what Disney needed to do. At the time, August 25th, Disney’s dividend was about 1.7%. The P/E ratio was about 16. The stock had listed sideways for about 3 years, in a price band from $90-120. Meanwhile, in the prior year, 2016, Disney was the…

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